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Development and prospects of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system over Europe: predictive skill, added value of regionalization, and ensemble size dependency

Reyers, Mark; Feldmann, Hendrik; Mieruch, Sebastian; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Uhlig, Marianne; Ahrens, Bodo; Früh, Barbara; Modali, Kameswarrao; Laube, Natalie; Moemken, Julia; Müller, Wolfgang; Schädler, Gerd; Kottmeier, Christoph

The current state of development and the prospects of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system for Europe are analysed. The MiKlip regional system consists of two 10-member hindcast ensembles computed with the global coupled model MPI-ESM-LR downscaled for the European region with COSMO-CLM to a horizontal resolution of 0.22∘ (∼25 km). Prediction skills are computed for temperature, precipitation, and wind speed using E-OBS and an ERA-Interim-driven COSMO-CLM simulation as verification datasets. Focus is given to the eight European PRUDENCE regions and to lead years 1–5 after initialization. Evidence of the general potential for regional decadal predictability for all three variables is provided. For example, the initialized hindcasts outperform the uninitialized historical runs for some key regions in Europe, particularly in southern Europe. However, forecast skill is not detected in all cases, but it depends on the variable, the region, and the hindcast generation. A comparison of the downscaled hindcasts with the global MPI-ESM-LR runs reveals that the MiKlip prediction system may distinctly benefit from regionalization, in particular for parts of southern Europe and for Scandinavia. ... mehr

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000092457
Veröffentlicht am 21.03.2019
DOI: 10.5194/esd-10-171-2019
Zitationen: 4
Web of Science
Zitationen: 4
Zitationen: 5
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2019
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2190-4987
KITopen-ID: 1000092457
HGF-Programm 12.01.02 (POF III, LK 01) Proc.res.f.multisc.predictab.of weather
Erschienen in Earth System Dynamics
Verlag Copernicus Publications
Band 10
Heft 1
Seiten 171–187
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 20.03.2019
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
Web of Science
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