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Tropical waves and rainfall over Africa: Variability, mechanisms and potential for forecasting

Schlüter, Andreas

Abstract:
Excessive rains or prolonged drought can have severe impacts on the economy, agriculture, water resources, spread of diseases and ecosystems in many African countries. As current global numerical weather prediction systems fail to deliver accurate rainfall forecasts over tropical Africa, novel forecasting strategies are needed. Tropical waves are known to modulate precipitation over this region on timescales of a few days to several weeks. The aim of this dissertation is to quantify the influence of all major waves on rainfall variability over Africa, to investigate the involved mechanisms and, to test their potential for forecasting rainfall, with a focus on northern tropical Africa during the extended monsoon season.

Despite the importance of rainfall variability for vulnerable societies in tropical Africa, the relative influence of tropical waves for this region is largely unknown. This thesis closes this gap and presents the first systematic comparison of the impact of six wave types on precipitation over northern tropical Africa during the transition and full monsoon seasons, using two satellite products and a dense rain gauge network. ... mehr

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Volltext §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000094145
Veröffentlicht am 02.05.2019
Coverbild
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
Publikationstyp Hochschulschrift
Jahr 2019
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator KITopen-ID: 1000094145
Verlag Karlsruhe
Umfang XVI, 189 S.
Abschlussart Dissertation
Fakultät Fakultät für Physik (PHYSIK)
Institut Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
Prüfungsdatum 26.04.2019
Referent/Betreuer Prof. P. Knippertz
Schlagworte Convectively coupled equatorial waves; Madden-Julian Oscillation; rainfall variability; Rossby waves; Kelvin waves; rainfall forecasting; statistical forecasting
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