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Tree mortality submodels drive simulated long-term forest dynamics: assessing 15 models from the stand to global scale

Bugmann, Harald; Seidl, Rupert; Hartig, Florian; Bohn, Friedrich; Brůna, Josef; Cailleret, Maxime; François, Louis; Heinke, Jens; Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; Hickler, Thomas; Hülsmann, Lisa; Huth, Andreas; Jacquemin, Ingrid; Kollas, Chris; Lasch-Born, Petra; Lexer, Manfred J.; Merganič, Ján; Merganičová, Katarína; Mette, Tobias; Miranda, Brian R.; ... mehr

Abstract:
Models are pivotal for assessing future forest dynamics under the impacts of changing climate and management practices, incorporating representations of tree growth, mortality, and regeneration. Quantitative studies on the importance of mortality submodels are scarce. We evaluated 15 dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) regarding their sensitivity to different formulations of tree mortality under different degrees of climate change. The set of models comprised eight DVMs at the stand scale, three at the landscape scale, and four typically applied at the continental to global scale. Some incorporate empirically derived mortality models, and others are based on experimental data, whereas still others are based on theoretical reasoning. Each DVM was run with at least two alternative mortality submodels. Model behavior was evaluated against empirical time series data, and then, the models were subjected to different scenarios of climate change. Most DVMs matched empirical data quite well, irrespective of the mortality submodel that was used. However, mortality submodels that performed in a very similar manner against past data often led to sharply different trajectories of forest dynamics under future climate change. ... mehr

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Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000094203
Veröffentlicht am 03.05.2019
Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2616
Scopus
Zitationen: 26
Web of Science
Zitationen: 26
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsmonat/-jahr 02.2019
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2150-8925
KITopen-ID: 1000094203
HGF-Programm 12.02.01 (POF III, LK 01) Effects of land use and climate change
Erschienen in Ecosphere
Verlag Ecological Society of America
Band 10
Heft 2
Seiten Article no: e02616
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 20.02.2019
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
Web of Science
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