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Skill and added value of the MiKlip regional decadal prediction system for temperature over Europe

Feldmann, Hendrik; Pinto, Joaquim g.; Laube, Natalie; Uhlig, Marianne; Moemken, Julia; Pasternack, Alexander; Früh, Barbara; Pohlmann, Holger; Kottmeier, Christoph

In recent years, several decadal prediction systems have been developed to provide multi-year predictions of the climate for the next 5–10 years. On the global scale, high decadal predictability has been identified for the North Atlantic sector, often extending over Europe. The first full regional hindcast ensemble, derived from dynamical downscaling, was produced within the German MiKlip project (‘decadal predictions’). The ensemble features annual starting dates from 1960 to 2017, with 10 decadal hindcasts per starting year. The global component of the prediction system uses the MPI-ESM-LR and the downscaling is performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The present study focusses on a range of aspects dealing with the skill and added value of regional decadal temperature predictions over Europe. The results substantiate the added value of the regional hindcasts compared to the forcing global model as well as to un-initialized simulations. The results show that the hindcasts are skilful both for annual and seasonal means, and that the scores are comparable for different observational reference data sets. The predictive skill increases from earlier to more recent start-years. ... mehr

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Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000095254
Veröffentlicht am 28.05.2019
DOI: 10.1080/16000870.2019.1618678
Zitationen: 2
Web of Science
Zitationen: 2
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsmonat/-jahr 01.2019
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1600-0870
KITopen-ID: 1000095254
HGF-Programm 12.01.02 (POF III, LK 01)
Proc.res.f.multisc.predictab.of weather
Erschienen in Tellus / A
Band 71
Heft 1
Seiten Article: 1618678
Bemerkung zur Veröffentlichung Gefördert durch den KIT-Publikationsfonds
Schlagwörter regional decadal predictions, added value of downscaling, forecast recalibration, MiKlip
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
Web of Science
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