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Resolving Sahelian thunderstorms improves mid-latitude weather forecasts

Pante, Gregor; Knippertz, Peter

Abstract:
The summertime West African Sahel has the worldwide highest degree of thunderstorm organisation into long-lived, several hundred-kilometre elongated, fast propagating systems that contribute 90% to the annual rainfall. All current global weather prediction and climate models represent thunderstorms using simplified parameterisation schemes which deteriorates the modelled distribution of rainfall from individual storms and the entire West African monsoon circulation. It is unclear how this misrepresentation of Sahelian convection affects forecasts globally. Our study is the first to demonstrate how a computationally feasible increase of model resolution over West Africa – allowing to avoid convection parameterisation – yields a better representation of organised convection in the Sahel and of moisture within the monsoon system, ultimately improving 5–8-day tropical and mid-latitude weather forecasts. We advocate an operational use of a modelling strategy similar to the one presented here for a cost-effective improvement of global weather prediction and potentially even (sub-)seasonal and climate simulations.

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Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000097223
Veröffentlicht am 09.08.2019
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Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Jahr 2019
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2041-1723
KITopen-ID: 1000097223
HGF-Programm 12.01.02 (POF III, LK 01)
Erschienen in Nature Communications
Band 10
Heft 1
Seiten Article: 3487
Bemerkung zur Veröffentlichung Gefördert durch den KIT-Publikationsfonds
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 02.08.2019
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
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