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Interannual to Decadal Rainfall Variability over Greater Horn of Africa: Non-Stationary Teleconnections, Physical Mechanisms, and Predictability

Bahaga, Titike Kassa

Abstract:
The main objectives of this thesis are to understand the drivers of interannual-to-decadal rainfall variability over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), to detect non-stationary teleconnections, to investigate the physical mechanisms, and to assess the skill of the MiKlip decadal forecast systems. To address these objectives, interannual to decadal teleconnections influencing the three GHA major rainy seasons are examined using observational datasets for 1901–2013. Sea Surface Temperature (SST)-based climate indices known to influence Short, Kiremt and Long Rains are used in a comprehensive statistical analysis to detect non-stationary behaviour in teleconnections and to split them into interannual and decadal times scales. Interannual variability in the October–December Short Rains is predominantly influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) with percent variance explained (PVE) of up to 80% in recent years. However, abrupt shifts in this teleconnection are found around 1918, 1951, 1987, and 1994. The Short Rains also correlate strongly with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the ENSO influence on Short Rains is mediated by an in-phase fluctuation of IOD. ... mehr

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Volltext §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000098606
Veröffentlicht am 04.10.2019
Coverbild
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
Publikationstyp Hochschulschrift
Jahr 2019
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator KITopen-ID: 1000098606
Verlag Karlsruhe
Umfang XXII, 158 S.
Abschlussart Dissertation
Fakultät Fakultät für Physik (PHYSIK)
Institut Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
Prüfungsdatum 28.06.2019
Referent/Betreuer Prof. A. H. Fink
KIT – Die Forschungsuniversität in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
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