The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones
Catto, Jennifer L.; Ackerley, Duncan; Booth, James F.; Champion, Adrian J.; Colle, Brian A.; Pfahl, Stephan; Pinto, Joaquim G. 1; Quinting, Julian F.
1; Seiler, Christian
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung (IMK), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
1; Seiler, Christian1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung (IMK), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
Abstract:
Purpose of Review
This review brings together recent research on the structure, characteristics, dynamics, and impacts of extratropical cyclones in the future. It draws on research using idealized models and complex climate simulations, to evaluate what is known and unknown about these future changes.
Recent Findings
There are interacting processes that contribute to the uncertainties in future extratropical cyclone changes, e.g., changes in the horizontal and vertical structure of the atmosphere and increasing moisture content due to rising temperatures.
Summary
While precipitation intensity will most likely increase, along with associated increased latent heating, it is unclear to what extent and for which particular climate conditions this will feedback to increase the intensity of the cyclones. Future research could focus on bridging the gap between idealized models and complex climate models, as well as better understanding of the regional impacts of future changes in extratropical cyclones.
This review brings together recent research on the structure, characteristics, dynamics, and impacts of extratropical cyclones in the future. It draws on research using idealized models and complex climate simulations, to evaluate what is known and unknown about these future changes.
Recent Findings
There are interacting processes that contribute to the uncertainties in future extratropical cyclone changes, e.g., changes in the horizontal and vertical structure of the atmosphere and increasing moisture content due to rising temperatures.
Summary
While precipitation intensity will most likely increase, along with associated increased latent heating, it is unclear to what extent and for which particular climate conditions this will feedback to increase the intensity of the cyclones. Future research could focus on bridging the gap between idealized models and complex climate models, as well as better understanding of the regional impacts of future changes in extratropical cyclones.
| Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT | Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung Troposphärenforschung (IMKTRO) KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU) |
| Publikationstyp | Zeitschriftenaufsatz |
| Publikationsjahr | 2019 |
| Sprache | Englisch |
| Identifikator | ISSN: 2198-6061 KITopen-ID: 1000099950 |
| HGF-Programm | 12.01.02 (POF III, LK 01) Proc.res.f.multisc.predictab.of weather |
| Erschienen in | Current climate change reports |
| Verlag | Springer |
| Band | 5 |
| Heft | 4 |
| Seiten | 407–420 |
| Vorab online veröffentlicht am | 15.11.2019 |
| Schlagwörter | Extratropical cyclones; Climate change; Windstorms; Idealized model; CMIP models |
| Nachgewiesen in | Scopus Web of Science Dimensions |