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Weather regimes and analogues downscaling of seasonal precipitation for the 21st century: A case study over Israel

Hochman, Assaf; Kunin, Pavel; Alpert, Pinhas; Harpaz, Tzvi; Saaroni, Hadas; Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita

Abstract:
Global climate models provide only partial information on local-scale phenomenon, such as precipitation, primarily due to their coarse resolution. In this study, statistical downscaling algorithms, based on both weather regimes and past analogues, are operated for 18 Israeli rain gauges with an altitude ranging between −200 and ~1,000 m above sea level (ASL). To project seasonal precipitation over Israel and its hydrologic basins, the algorithms are applied to six Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models for the end of the 21st century, according to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The downscaled models can capture quite well the seasonal precipitation distribution, though with underestimation in winter and overestimation in spring. All models display a significant reduction of seasonal precipitation for the 21st century according to both scenarios. The winter reductions for the end of the century and the RCP8.5 scenario are found to be ~22 and ~37% according to the weather regimes and the analogues downscaling methods, respectively. Spring reductions are found to be ~10–20% larger than winter reductions. It is shown that the projected reduction results from a decrease in the frequency of the rain-bearing systems, as well as a decrease in the average daily precipitation intensity. ... mehr

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Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000100005
Veröffentlicht am 13.03.2020
Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6318
Scopus
Zitationen: 2
Web of Science
Zitationen: 2
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2020
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0196-1748, 0899-8418, 1097-0088, 2374-7412
KITopen-ID: 1000100005
HGF-Programm 12.01.02 (POF III, LK 01)
Proc.res.f.multisc.predictab.of weather
Erschienen in International journal of climatology
Band 40
Heft 4
Seiten 2062-2077
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 01.10.2019
Schlagwörter analogues downscaling, climate change, CMIP5 predictions, Eastern Mediterranean, seasonal precipitation, synoptic classification, weather regimes
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
Scopus
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