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Accounting for multiple ecosystem services in a simulation of land‐use decisions: Does it reduce tropical deforestation? [in press]

Knoke, Thomas; Paul, Carola; Rammig, Anja; Gosling, Elizabeth; Hildebrandt, Patrick; Härtl, Fabian; Peters, Thorsten; Richter, Michael; Diertl, Karl‐Heinz; Castro, Luz Maria; Calvas, Baltazar; Ochoa, Santiago; Valle‐Carrión, Liz Anabelle; Hamer, Ute; Tischer, Alexander; Potthast, Karin; Windhorst, David; Homeier, Jürgen; Wilcke, Wolfgang; Velescu, Andre; ... mehr

Conversion of tropical forests is among the primary causes of global environmental change. The loss of their important environmental services has prompted calls to integrate ecosystem services (ES) in addition to socio-economic objectives in decisionmaking. To test the effect of accounting for both ES and socio-economic objectives in land-use decisions, we develop a new dynamic approach to model deforestation scenarios for tropical mountain forests. We integrate multi-objective optimization of land allocation with an innovative approach to consider uncertainty spaces for each objective. These uncertainty spaces account for potential variability among decisionmakers, who may have different expectations about the future. When optimizing only socio-economic objectives, the model continues the past trend in deforestation (1975–2015) in the projected land-use allocation (2015–2070). Based on indicators for biomass production, carbon storage, climate and water regulation, and soil quality, we show that considering multiple ES in addition to the socio-economic objectives has heterogeneous effects on land-use allocation. It saves some natural forest if the natural forest share is below 38%, and can stop deforestation once the natural forest share drops below 10%. ... mehr

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Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000117437
Veröffentlicht am 27.02.2020
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Geographie und Geoökologie (IFGG)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2020
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1354-1013, 1365-2486
KITopen-ID: 1000117437
Erschienen in Global change biology
Seiten gcb.15003
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 19.01.2020
Schlagwörter biodiversity, ecosystem services, Ecuador, land allocation, landscape restoration, robust optimization
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
Web of Science
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