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Socio-technical energy scenarios: state-of-the-art and CIB-based approaches

Weimer-Jehle, W.; Vögele, S.; Hauser, W.; Kosow, H.; Poganietz, W. R.; Prehofer, S.

Abstract:
Energy conversion is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and energy transition scenarios are a key tool for gaining a greater understanding of the possible pathways toward climate protection. There is consensus in energy research that political and societal framework conditions will play a pivotal role in shaping energy transitions. In energy scenario construction, this perspective is increasingly acknowledged through the approach of informing model-based energy analysis with storylines about societal futures, an exercise we call “socio-technical energy scenario construction” in this article. However, there is a dispute about how to construct the storylines in a traceable, consistent, comprehensive, and reproducible way. This study aims to support energy researchers considering the use of the concept of socio-technical scenarios in two ways: first, we provide a state-of-the-art analysis of socio-technical energy scenario construction by comparing 16 studies with respect to five categories. Second, we address the dispute regarding storyline construction in energy research and examine 13 reports using the Cross-Impact Balances method. ... mehr

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Postprint §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000117515
Veröffentlicht am 25.03.2020
Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02680-y
Scopus
Zitationen: 2
Web of Science
Zitationen: 2
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Technikfolgenabschätzung und Systemanalyse (ITAS)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2020
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0165-0009, 1573-1480
KITopen-ID: 1000117515
Erschienen in Climatic change
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 02.03.2020
Schlagwörter Energyscenario, Socio-technical scenario, Energytransition Cross-ImpactBalances (CIB)
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
Scopus
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