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Quantifying subjective uncertainty in survey expectations

Krüger, Fabian; Pavlova, Lora

Several recent surveys ask for a person’s subjective probabilities that the inflation rate falls into various outcome ranges. We provide a new measure of the uncertainty implicit in such probabilities. The measure has several advantages over existing methods: It is robust, trivial to implement, requires no functional form assumptions, and is well-defined for all logically possible probabilities. These advantages are particularly relevant when analyzing large scale consumer surveys. We illustrate the new measure using data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations.

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Volltext §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000118008
Veröffentlicht am 02.04.2020
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (ECON)
Publikationstyp Forschungsbericht/Preprint
Publikationsmonat/-jahr 03.2020
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2190-9806
KITopen-ID: 1000118008
Verlag Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
Umfang 8 S.
Serie Working Paper Series in Economics ; 139
Externe Relationen Abstract/Volltext
KIT – Die Forschungsuniversität in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
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