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Large impact of tiny model domain shifts for the Pentecost 2014 mesoscale convective system over Germany

Barthlott, Christian; Barrett, Andrew I.

Abstract (englisch):
The mesoscale convective system (MCS) that affected Germany at Pentecost 2014 (9 June 2014) was one of the most severe for decades. However, the predictability of this system was very low as the operational deterministic and ensemble prediction systems completely failed to predict the event with more than a 12 h lead time. We present hindcasts of the event using the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling (COSMO) model at a convection-permitting (2.8 km) resolution on a large (1668 km×1807 km) domain. Using this large domain allowed us to successfully simulate the whole life cycle of the system originating from the French Atlantic coast. However, even with the large domain, the predictability of the MCS is low. Tiny changes to the model domain produced large changes in the MCS, removing it completely from some simulations. To demonstrate this we systematically shifted the model domain by just one grid point in eight different directions, from which three did not simulate any convection over Germany. Our analysis shows that there were no important differences in domain-averaged initial conditions or in the preconvective environment ahead of the convective system. ... mehr

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Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-1-207-2020
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2020
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2698-4016
KITopen-ID: 1000118803
HGF-Programm 12.01.01 (POF III, LK 01)
Clouds in a pertubed atmosphere
Erschienen in Weather and Climate Dynamics
Band 1
Heft 1
Seiten 207–224
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 28.04.2020
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