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A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security

Jagermeyr, J.; Robock, A.; Elliott, J.; Muller, C.; Xia, L.; Khabarov, N.; Folberth, C.; Schmid, E.; Liu, W.; Zabel, F.; Rabin, S. S.; Puma, M. J.; Heslin, A.; Franke, J.; Foster, I.; Asseng, S.; Bardeen, C. G.; Toon, O. B.; Rosenzweig, C.

Abstract (englisch):
A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 °C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30°N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. ... mehr

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Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000118835
Veröffentlicht am 04.05.2020
Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1919049117
Scopus
Zitationen: 1
Web of Science
Zitationen: 2
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2020
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0027-8424, 1091-6490
KITopen-ID: 1000118835
Erschienen in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Band 117
Heft 13
Seiten 7071-7081
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 16.03.2020
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
Scopus
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