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Long-term variance of heavy precipitation across central Europe using a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations

Ehmele, Florian 1,2; Kautz, Lisa-Ann 1,2; Feldmann, Hendrik 1,2; Pinto, Joaquim G. 1,2
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung Troposphärenforschung (IMKTRO), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
2 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung (IMK), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)

Abstract (englisch):

Widespread flooding events are among the major natural hazards in central Europe. Such events are usually related to intensive, long-lasting precipitation over larger areas. Despite some prominent floods during the last three decades (e.g., 1997, 1999, 2002, and 2013), extreme floods are rare and associated with estimated long return periods of more than 100 years. To assess the associated risks of such extreme events, reliable statistics of precipitation and discharge are required. Comprehensive observations, however, are mainly available for the last 50–60 years or less. This shortcoming can be reduced using stochastic data sets. One possibility towards this aim is to consider climate model data or extended reanalyses. This study presents and discusses a validation of different century-long data sets, decadal hindcasts, and also predictions for the upcoming decade combined to a new large ensemble. Global reanalyses for the 20th century with a horizontal resolution of more than 100 km have been dynamically downscaled with a regional climate model (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling – CLimate Mode; COSMO-CLM) towards a higher resolution of 25 km. ... mehr

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000119807
Veröffentlicht am 28.05.2020
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-469-2020
Zitationen: 20
Zitationen: 21
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung Troposphärenforschung (IMKTRO)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2020
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2190-4987
KITopen-ID: 1000119807
HGF-Programm 12.01.02 (POF III, LK 01) Proc.res.f.multisc.predictab.of weather
Erschienen in Earth System Dynamics
Verlag Copernicus Publications
Band 11
Heft 2
Seiten 469–490
Bemerkung zur Veröffentlichung Gefördert durch den KIT-Publikationsfonds
Gefördert vom Ministerium für Wissenschaft, Forschung und Kunst Baden-Württemberg (MWK) im Rahmen des Open-Access-Förderprogramms "BW BigDIWA"
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 26.05.2020
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