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Will dairy cattle production in West Africa be challenged by heat stress in the future?

Rahimi, Jaber 1,2; Mutua, John Yumbya; Notenbaert, An M. O.; Dieng, Diarra 1,2; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus 1,2
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
2 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung (IMK), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)


This study focuses on heat stress conditions for dairy cattle production in West Africa under current and future climatic conditions. After testing the accuracy of the dynamically downscaled climate datasets for simulating the historical daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and relative humidity (RH) in West Africa for 50 meteorological stations, we used the dataset for calculating the temperature-humidity index (THI), i.e., an index indicating heat stress for dairy cattle on a daily scale. Calculations were made for the historical period (1981–2010) using the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset, and for two future periods (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) using climate predictions of the GFDLESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-MR Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. Here, we show that during the period from 1981 to 2010 for > 1/5 of the region of West Africa, the frequency of severe/danger heat events per year, i.e., events that result in significant decreases in productive and reproductive performances, increased from 11 to 29–38 days (significant at 95% confidence level). Most obvious changes were observed for the eastern and southeastern parts. ... mehr

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000119995
Veröffentlicht am 04.06.2020
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02733-2
Zitationen: 13
Zitationen: 14
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2020
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0165-0009, 1573-1480
KITopen-ID: 1000119995
HGF-Programm 12.02.01 (POF III, LK 01) Effects of land use and climate change
Erschienen in Climatic change
Verlag Springer
Band 161
Seiten 665-685
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 15.05.2020
Schlagwörter THI, Climate change, Dairy cattle, West Africa
Nachgewiesen in Dimensions
Web of Science
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