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Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data

Spinoni, Jonathan; Barbosa, Paulo; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Cassano, John; Cavazos, Tereza; Christensen, Jens H.; Christensen, Ole B.; Coppola, Erika; Evans, Jason; Geyer, Beate; Giorgi, Filippo; Hadjinicolaou, Panos; Jacob, Daniela; Katzfey, Jack; Koenigk, Torben; Laprise, René; Lennard, Christopher J.; Kurnaz, M. Levent; Li, Delei; Llopart, Marta; ... mehr

Abstract:
Two questions motivated this study: 1) Will meteorological droughts become more frequent and severe during the twenty-first century? 2) Given the projected global temperature rise, to what extent does the inclusion of temperature (in addition to precipitation) in drought indicators play a role in future meteorological droughts? To answer, we analyzed the changes in drought frequency, severity, and historically undocumented extreme droughts over 1981–2100, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI; including precipitation only) and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI; indirectly including temperature), and under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). As input data, we employed 103 high-resolution (0.44°) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), based on a combination of 16 global circulation models (GCMs) and 20 regional circulation models (RCMs). This is the first study on global drought projections including RCMs based on such a large ensemble of RCMs. Based on precipitation only, ~15% of the global land is likely to experience more frequent and severe droughts during 2071–2100 versus 1981–2010 for both scenarios. ... mehr

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Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000121988
Veröffentlicht am 23.07.2020
Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0084.1
Scopus
Zitationen: 25
Web of Science
Zitationen: 20
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsmonat/-jahr 05.2020
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0894-8755, 1520-0442
KITopen-ID: 1000121988
HGF-Programm 12.01.02 (POF III, LK 01) Proc.res.f.multisc.predictab.of weather
Erschienen in Journal of climate
Verlag American Meteorological Society
Band 33
Heft 9
Seiten 3635–3661
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 31.03.2020
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
Web of Science
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