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Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data

Spinoni, Jonathan; Barbosa, Paulo; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Cassano, John; Cavazos, Tereza; Christensen, Jens H.; Christensen, Ole B.; Coppola, Erika; Evans, Jason; Geyer, Beate; Giorgi, Filippo; Hadjinicolaou, Panos; Jacob, Daniela; Katzfey, Jack; Koenigk, Torben; Laprise, René; Lennard, Christopher J.; Kurnaz, M. Levent; Li, Delei; ... mehr

Abstract:

Two questions motivated this study: 1) Will meteorological droughts become more frequent and severe during the twenty-first century? 2) Given the projected global temperature rise, to what extent does the inclusion of temperature (in addition to precipitation) in drought indicators play a role in future meteorological droughts? To answer, we analyzed the changes in drought frequency, severity, and historically undocumented extreme droughts over 1981–2100, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI; including precipitation only) and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI; indirectly including temperature), and under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). As input data, we employed 103 high-resolution (0.44°) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), based on a combination of 16 global circulation models (GCMs) and 20 regional circulation models (RCMs). This is the first study on global drought projections including RCMs based on such a large ensemble of RCMs. Based on precipitation only, ~15% of the global land is likely to experience more frequent and severe droughts during 2071–2100 versus 1981–2010 for both scenarios. ... mehr

Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung Troposphärenforschung (IMKTRO)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsmonat/-jahr 05.2020
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0894-8755, 1520-0442
KITopen-ID: 1000121988
HGF-Programm 12.01.02 (POF III, LK 01) Proc.res.f.multisc.predictab.of weather
Erschienen in Journal of climate
Verlag American Meteorological Society
Band 33
Heft 9
Seiten 3635–3661
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 31.03.2020
Nachgewiesen in Dimensions
Scopus
Web of Science

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000121988
Veröffentlicht am 23.07.2020
Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0084.1
Scopus
Zitationen: 290
Web of Science
Zitationen: 251
Dimensions
Zitationen: 326
Seitenaufrufe: 182
seit 24.07.2020
Downloads: 675
seit 26.07.2020
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