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The regional MiKlip decadal prediction system for Europe – Hindcast skill for extremes and user‐oriented variables

Moemken, Julia; Feldmann, Hendrik; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Buldmann, Benjamin; Laube, Natalie; Kadow, Christopher; Paxian, Andreas; Tiedje, Bente; Kottmeier, Christoph; Marotzke, Jochem

Abstract:
Regional climate predictions for the next decade are gaining importance, as this period falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy, and society. The potential predictability of climate indices or extremes at the regional scale is of particular interest. The German MiKlip project (“mid‐term climate forecast”) developed the first regional decadal prediction system for Europe at 0.44° resolution, based on the regional model COSMO‐CLM using global MPI‐ESM simulations as boundary conditions. We analyse the skill of this regional system focussing on extremes and user‐oriented variables. The considered quantities are related to temperature extremes, heavy precipitation, wind impacts, and the agronomy sector. Variables related to temperature (e.g., frost days, heat wave days) show high predictive skill (anomaly correlation up to 0.9) with very little dependence on lead‐time, and the skill patterns are spatially robust. The skill patterns for precipitation‐related variables (e.g., heavy precipitation days) and wind‐based indices (like storm days) are less skilful and more heterogeneous, particularly for the latter. Quantities related to the agronomy sector (e.g., growing degree days) show high predictive skill, comparable to temperature. ... mehr

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Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000123887
Veröffentlicht am 31.10.2020
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2021
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0899-8418, 1097-0088
KITopen-ID: 1000123887
HGF-Programm 12.01.02 (POF III, LK 01) Proc.res.f.multisc.predictab.of weather
Weitere HGF-Programme 12.11.32 (POF IV, LK 01) Advancing atmospheric and Earth system models
Erschienen in International journal of climatology
Verlag John Wiley and Sons
Band 41
Heft 51
Seiten E1944-E1958
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 31.08.2020
Schlagwörter climate services, Europe, extremes, MiKlip, regional decadal predictions, user needs
Nachgewiesen in Dimensions
Scopus
Web of Science
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