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A model ensemble generator to explore structural uncertainty in karst systems with unmapped conduits

Fandel, C.; Ferré, T.; Chen, Z.; Renard, P.; Goldscheider, Nico 1
1 Institut für Angewandte Geowissenschaften (AGW), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)


Karst aquifers are characterized by high-conductivity conduits embedded in a low-conductivity fractured matrix, resulting in extreme heterogeneity and variable groundwater flow behavior. The conduit network controls groundwater flow, but is often unmapped, making it difficult to apply numerical models to predict system behavior. This paper presents a multi-model ensemble method to represent structural and conceptual uncertainty inherent in simulation of systems with limited spatial information, and to guide data collection. The study tests the new method by applying it to a well-mapped, geologically complex long-term study site: the Gottesacker alpine karst system (Austria/Germany). The ensemble generation process, linking existing tools, consists of three steps: creating 3D geologic models using GemPy (a Python package), generating multiple conduit networks constrained by the geology using the Stochastic Karst Simulator (a MATLAB script), and, finally, running multiple flow simulations through each network using the Storm Water Management Model (C-based software) to reject nonbehavioral models based on the fit of the simulated spring discharge to the observed discharge. ... mehr

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000125436
Veröffentlicht am 29.10.2020
DOI: 10.1007/s10040-020-02227-6
Zitationen: 11
Web of Science
Zitationen: 12
Zitationen: 14
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Angewandte Geowissenschaften (AGW)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2021
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1431-2174, 1435-0157
KITopen-ID: 1000125436
Erschienen in Hydrogeology journal
Verlag Springer
Band 29
Seiten 229–248
Schlagwörter Multi-model ensemble, Structural uncertainty, Alpine hydrogeology, Karst, Groundwater flow
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
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