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A model ensemble generator to explore structural uncertainty in karst systems with unmapped conduits [in press]

Fandel, C.; Ferré, T.; Chen, Z.; Renard, P.; Goldscheider, Nico

Abstract:
Karst aquifers are characterized by high-conductivity conduits embedded in a low-conductivity fractured matrix, resulting in extreme heterogeneity and variable groundwater flow behavior. The conduit network controls groundwater flow, but is often unmapped, making it difficult to apply numerical models to predict system behavior. This paper presents a multi-model ensemble method to represent structural and conceptual uncertainty inherent in simulation of systems with limited spatial information, and to guide data collection. The study tests the new method by applying it to a well-mapped, geologically complex long-term study site: the Gottesacker alpine karst system (Austria/Germany). The ensemble generation process, linking existing tools, consists of three steps: creating 3D geologic models using GemPy (a Python package), generating multiple conduit networks constrained by the geology using the Stochastic Karst Simulator (a MATLAB script), and, finally, running multiple flow simulations through each network using the Storm Water Management Model (C-based software) to reject nonbehavioral models based on the fit of the simulated spring discharge to the observed discharge. ... mehr

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Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000125436
Veröffentlicht am 29.10.2020
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Angewandte Geowissenschaften (AGW)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2020
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1431-2174, 1435-0157
KITopen-ID: 1000125436
Erschienen in Hydrogeology journal
Schlagwörter Multi-model ensemble, Structural uncertainty, Alpine hydrogeology, Karst, Groundwater flow
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
Web of Science
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