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Legacy Effects from Historical Environmental Changes Dominate Future Terrestrial Carbon Uptake

Krause, A.; Arneth, A.; Anthoni, P.; Rammig, A.

Abstract:
Ecosystems continuously adapt to interacting environmental drivers that change over time. Consequently, the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystem may presently still be affected by past anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., deforestation) and other environmental changes (e.g., climate change). However, even though such so‐called “legacy effects” are implicitly included in many carbon cycle modeling studies, they are typically not explicitly quantified and therefore scientists might not be aware of their long‐term importance. Here, we use the ecosystem model LPJ‐GUESS to quantify legacy effects for the 21st century and the respective contributions of the following environmental drivers: climate change, CO$_{2}$ fertilization, land use change, wood harvest, nitrogen deposition, and nitrogen fertilization. According to our simulations, the combined legacy effects of historical (1850–2015) environmental changes result in a land carbon uptake of +126 Gt C over the future (2015–2099) period. This by far exceeds the impacts of future environmental changes (range −53 Gt C to +16 Gt C for three scenarios) and is comparable in magnitude to historical carbon losses (−154 Gt C). ... mehr

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Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000126031
Veröffentlicht am 16.11.2020
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2020
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2328-4277
KITopen-ID: 1000126031
Erschienen in Earth's future
Band 8
Heft 10
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
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