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Changes in the characteristics of ‘wet’ and ‘dry’ Red Sea Trough over the Eastern Mediterranean in CMIP5 climate projections

Hochman, Assaf; Rostkier-Edelstein, D.; Kunin, P.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

Abstract:
The Eastern Mediterranean resides on the border between the temperate and semi-arid and arid climate zones, and is thus influenced by both mid-latitude and sub-tropical weather systems. Precipitation and extreme weather in this region are mainly associated with either Cyprus Lows or the “wet” Red Sea Troughs. Current regional climate projections indicate that the region may become warmer and drier in future decades. Here, we analyze the influence of enhanced greenhouse gas forcing on the climatological properties of the ‘wet’ and ‘dry’ Red Sea Trough (WRST & DRST, respectively). With this aim, a regional synoptic classification and a downscaling algorithm based on past analogs are applied to eighteen rain stations over the main ground water basins in Israel. The algorithms are applied to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for 1986–2005 and to eight CMIP5 model simulations for the historical (1986–2005) and end of the century (2081–2100) climate conditions according to the RCP8.5 scenario. For the historical period, the CMIP5 models are largely able to represent the characteristics of the Red Sea Trough. Based on the multi-model mean, significant changes are found for WRST and DRST for the late XXI Century. ... mehr

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Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000126664
Veröffentlicht am 24.11.2020
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2021
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0066-6424, 0177-798X, 1434-4483
KITopen-ID: 1000126664
HGF-Programm 12.01.02 (POF III, LK 01) Proc.res.f.multisc.predictab.of weather
Weitere HGF-Programme 12.11.32 (POF IV) Advancing atmospheric and Earth system models
Erschienen in Theoretical and applied climatology
Band 143
Seiten 781-794
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 11.11.2020
Schlagwörter Active Red Sea Trough, Synoptic classification, Climate change, Eastern Mediterranean, Global warming, Middle East
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
Scopus
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