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Assessment of seasonal winter temperature forecast errors in the regcm model over northern Vietnam

Van, H. V.; Du Duc, T.; Khanh, H. M.; Hole, L. R.; Duc Tran, Anh; Thanh, H. L. T.; Dinh, Q. D.

Abstract:
This study verified the seasonal six-month forecasts for winter temperatures for northern Vietnam in 1998–2018 using a regional climate model (RegCM4) with the boundary conditions of the climate forecast system Version 2 (CFSv2) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). First, different physical schemes (land-surface process, cumulus, and radiation parameterizations) in RegCM4 were applied to generate 12 single forecasts. Second, the simple ensemble forecasts were generated through the combinations of those different physical formulations. Three subclimate regions (R1, R2, R3) of northern Vietnam were separately tested with surface observations and a reanalysis dataset (Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA55)). The highest sensitivity to the mean monthly temperature forecasts was shown by the land-surface parameterizations (the biosphere−atmosphere transfer scheme (BATS) and community land model version 4.5 (CLM)). The BATS forecast groups tended to provide forecasts with lower temperatures than the actual observations, while the CLM forecast groups tended to overestimate the temperatures. The forecast errors from single forecasts could be clearly reduced with ensemble mean forecasts, but ensemble spreads were less than those root-mean-square errors (RMSEs). ... mehr

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Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000126949
Veröffentlicht am 01.12.2020
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2020
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2225-1154
KITopen-ID: 1000126949
HGF-Programm 12.02.03 (POF III, LK 01) Regional Climate-and Water Cycle Variab.
Erschienen in Climate
Verlag MDPI
Band 8
Heft 6
Seiten Art.-Nr.: 77
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
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