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An explorative approach to deriving future scenarios: A first comparison of the consistency matrix-based and the catalog-based approach to generating future scenarios

Marthaler, Florian 1; Gesk, Johannes Willi 1; Siebe, Andreas; Albers, Albert 1
1 Institut für Produktentwicklung (IPEK), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)


The development of robust products, meaning products that are successful regardless of changes in the future, requires an assessment of possible futures. This makes it possible to adapt to negative and unexpected conditions or circumstances. For this reason, future scenarios are developed that reflect possible futures based on influencing factors and their alternative developments on the product or system. For each factor, multidimensional future projections can be found, which are then evaluated for consistency. Up to now, scenarios have been created using the scenario management approach, which is based on consistency assessment of future projections pairs of key factors, or morphological methods (e.g. field anomaly relaxation). Both approaches are based at least in part on a plausibility check. On the one hand this leads to a high expenditure of time in scenario management, and on the other hand morphological methods consider a limited number of factors, which reduces the future space and thus limits informative value of the scenarios. In this research contribution, an explorative approach to deriving future scenarios is proposed that integrates morphological elements into scenario management. ... mehr

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000127450
Veröffentlicht am 10.12.2020
DOI: 10.1016/j.procir.2020.02.245
Zitationen: 3
Zitationen: 2
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Produktentwicklung (IPEK)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2020
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2212-8271
KITopen-ID: 1000127450
Erschienen in Procedia CIRP
Verlag Elsevier
Band 91
Seiten 883–892
Schlagwörter foresight, future scenarios, innovation support, decision making, early phase of product engineering, innovation method
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
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