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System analysis of the bio-based economy in Colombia: A bottom-up energy system model and scenario analysis [in press]

Younis, A.; Benders, R.; Delgado, R.; Lap, T.; Gonzalez-Salazar, Miguel; Cadena, A.; Faaij, A.

The transition to a sustainable bio‐based economy is perceived as a valid path towards low‐carbon development for emerging economies that have rich biomass resources. In the case of Colombia, the role of biomass has been tackled through qualitative roadmaps and regional climate policy assessments. However, neither of these approaches has addressed the complexity of the bio‐based economy systematically in the wider context of emission mitigation and energy and chemicals supply. In response to this limitation, we extended a bottom‐up energy system optimization model by adding a comprehensive database of novel bio‐based value chains. We included advanced road and aviation biofuels, (bio)chemicals, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and integrated biorefinery configurations. A scenario analysis was conducted for the period 2015–2050, which reflected uncertainties in the capacity for technological learning, climate policy ambitions, and land availability for energy crops. Our results indicate that biomass can play an important, even if variable, role in supplying 315–760 PJ/y of modern bio‐based products. In pursuit of a deep decarbonization trajectory, the large‐scale mobilization of biomass resources can reduce the cost of the energy system by up to 11 billion $/year, the marginal abatement cost by 62%, and the potential reliance on imports of oil and chemicals in the future. ... mehr

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Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000127696
Veröffentlicht am 16.12.2020
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Technikfolgenabschätzung und Systemanalyse (ITAS)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2020
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1932-1031, 1932-104X
KITopen-ID: 1000127696
Erschienen in Biofuels, bioproducts and biorefining
Verlag Wiley
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 13.11.2020
Schlagwörter bio-based economy; biomass value chains; energy system modeling; TIMES; Colombia
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
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