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Credit cycles revisited

Urban, Jörg

Credit and business cycles play an important role in economic research, especially for central banks and supervisors. We reexamine a very useful dynamic model proposed by Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) of an economy with an endogenous credit limit. They claim that a small temporary shock generates large and persistent deviations from the steady state due to a positive feedback loop and the endogenous credit constraint. We mathematically show that contrary to common belief the model does not show amplification and persistence is visible only for a few parameter settings. Kiyotaki and Moore have linearized the model despite higher order terms being more important, rendering the Taylor expansion invalid. Further, we show that spillover effects in an economy with two distinct sectors are small. The strong amplification present in the original results, which supposedly is due to the large inter-temporal or dynamic multiplier effect, is spurious. The dynamic multiplier effect is of similar size than the static effect and in all cases numerically small.

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Volltext §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000127946
Veröffentlicht am 22.12.2020
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (ECON)
Publikationstyp Forschungsbericht/Preprint
Publikationsmonat/-jahr 11.2020
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2190-9806
KITopen-ID: 1000127946
Verlag Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
Umfang 29 S.
Serie Working Paper Series in Economics ; 146
Schlagwörter Amplification, credit constraints, credit cycles, dynamic economies, Taylor expansion
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