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A new view of heat wave dynamics and predictability over the eastern Mediterranean

Hochman, Assaf; Scher, Sebastian; Quinting, Julian; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Messori, Gabriele

Skillful forecasts of extreme weather events have a major socioeconomic relevance. Here, we compare two complementary approaches to diagnose the predictability of extreme weather: recent developments in dynamical systems theory and numerical ensemble weather forecasts. The former allows us to define atmospheric configurations in terms of their persistence and local dimension, which provides information on how the atmosphere evolves to and from a given state of interest. These metrics may be used as proxies for the intrinsic predictability of the atmosphere, which only depends on the atmosphere's properties. Ensemble weather forecasts provide information on the practical predictability of the atmosphere, which partly depends on the performance of the numerical model used. We focus on heat waves affecting the eastern Mediterranean. These are identified using the climatic stress index (CSI), which was explicitly developed for the summer weather conditions in this region and differentiates between heat waves (upper decile) and cool days (lower decile). Significant differences are found between the two groups from both the dynamical systems and the numerical weather prediction perspectives. ... mehr

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Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000129442
Veröffentlicht am 08.02.2021
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2021
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2190-4987
KITopen-ID: 1000129442
HGF-Programm 12.11.32 (POF IV, LK 01) Advancing atmospheric and Earth system models
Erschienen in Earth System Dynamics
Verlag Copernicus Publications
Band 12
Heft 1
Seiten 133–149
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 04.02.2021
Nachgewiesen in Dimensions
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