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How modelling paradigms affect simulated future land use change

Brown, Calum ORCID iD icon 1,2; Holman, Ian; Rounsevell, Mark ORCID iD icon 1,2
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
2 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung (IMK), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)


Land use models operating at regional to global scales are almost exclusively based on the single paradigm of economic optimisation. Models based on different paradigms are known to produce very different results, but these are not always equivalent or attributable to particular assumptions. In this study, we compare two pan-European integrated land use models that utilise the same climatic and socio-economic scenarios but which adopt fundamentally different modelling paradigms. One of these is a constrained optimising economic-equilibrium model, and the other is a stochastic agent-based model. We run both models for a range of scenario combinations and compare their projections of spatially aggregate and disaggregate land use changes and ecosystem service supply levels in food, forest and associated environmental systems. We find that the models produce very different results in some scenarios, with simulated food production varying by up to half of total demand and the extent of intensive agriculture varying by up to 25 % of the EU land area. The agent-based model projects more multifunctional and heterogeneous landscapes in most scenarios, providing a wider range of ecosystem services at landscape scales, as agents make individual, time-dependent decisions that reflect economic and non-economic motivations. ... mehr

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000129968
Veröffentlicht am 24.02.2021
DOI: 10.5194/esd-12-211-2021
Zitationen: 13
Web of Science
Zitationen: 13
Zitationen: 14
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Universität Karlsruhe (TH) – Interfakultative Einrichtungen (Interfakultative Einrichtungen)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2021
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2190-4987
KITopen-ID: 1000129968
HGF-Programm 12.11.21 (POF IV, LK 01) Natural ecosystems as sources and sinks of GHGs
Erschienen in Earth System Dynamics
Verlag Copernicus Publications
Band 12
Heft 1
Seiten 211–231
Bemerkung zur Veröffentlichung Gefördert durch den KIT-Publikationsfonds
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 23.02.2021
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
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