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Diverging land-use projections cause large variability in their impacts on ecosystems and related indicators for ecosystem services

Bayer, Anita D.; Fuchs, Richard; Mey, Reinhard; Krause, Andreas; Verburg, Peter H.; Anthoni, Peter; Arneth, Almut

Abstract:
Land-use models and integrated assessment models provide scenarios of land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes following pathways or storylines related to different socioeconomic and environmental developments. The large diversity of available scenario projections leads to a recognizable variability in impacts on land ecosystems and the levels of services provided. We evaluated 16 projections of future LULC until 2040 that reflected different assumptions regarding socioeconomic demands and modeling protocols. By using these LULC projections in a state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation model, we simulated their effect on selected ecosystem service indicators related to ecosystem productivity and carbon sequestration potential, agricultural production and the water cycle. We found that although a common trend for agricultural expansion exists across the scenarios, where and how particular LULC changes are realized differs widely across models and scenarios. They are linked to model-specific considerations of some demands over others and their respective translation into LULC changes and also reflect the simplified or missing representation of processes related to land dynamics or other influencing factors (e.g., trade, climate change). ... mehr

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Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000131397
Veröffentlicht am 16.04.2021
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung (IMK)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2021
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2190-4979, 2190-4987
KITopen-ID: 1000131397
Erschienen in Earth System Dynamics
Verlag Copernicus Publications
Band 12
Heft 1
Seiten 327-351
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
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