Substantial hysteresis in emergent temperature sensitivity of global wetland CH$_{4}$ emissions

Wetland methane (CH$_{4}$) emissions (F$_{CH_{4}}$) are important in global carbon budgets and climate change assessments. Currently, F$_{CH_{4}}$ projections rely on prescribed static temperature sensitivity that varies among biogeochemical models. Meta-analyses have proposed a consistent F$_{CH_{4}}$ temperature dependence across spatial scales for use in models; however, site-level studies demonstrate that F$_{CH_{4}}$ are often controlled by factors beyond temperature. Here, we evaluate the relationship between F$_{CH_{4}}$ and temperature using observations from the FLUXNET-CH$_{4}$ database. Measurements collected across the globe show substantial seasonal hysteresis between F$_{CH_{4}}$ and temperature, suggesting larger F$_{CH_{4}}$ sensitivity to temperature later in the frost-free season (about 77% of site-years). Results derived from a machine-learning model and several regression models highlight the importance of representing the large spatial and temporal variability within site-years and ecosystem types. Mechanistic advancements in biogeochemical model parameterization and detailed measurements in factors modulating CH$_{4}$ production are thus needed to improve global CH$_{4}$ budget assessments.