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Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties

Zabel, F.; Müller, C.; Elliott, J.; Minoli, S.; Jägermeyr, J.; Schneider, J. M.; Franke, J. A.; Moyer, E.; Dury, M.; Francois, L.; Folberth, C.; Liu, W.; Pugh, T. A. M.; Olin, S.; Rabin, S. S. 1; Mauser, W.; Hank, T.; Ruane, A. C.; Asseng, S.
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)

Abstract:
Climate change affects global agricultural production and threatens food security. Faster phenological development of crops due to climate warming is one of the main drivers for potential future yield reductions. To counter the effect of faster maturity, adapted varieties would require more heat units to regain the previous growing period length. In this study, we investigate the effects of variety adaptation on global caloric production under four different future climate change scenarios for maize, rice, soybean, and wheat. Thereby, we empirically identify areas that could require new varieties and areas where variety adaptation could be achieved by shifting existing varieties into new regions. The study uses an ensemble of seven global gridded crop models and five CMIP6 climate models. We found that 39% (SSP5-8.5) of global cropland could require new crop varieties to avoid yield loss from climate change by the end of the century. At low levels of warming (SSP1-2.6), 85% of currently cultivated land can draw from existing varieties to shift within an agro-ecological zone for adaptation. The assumptions on available varieties for adaptation have major impacts on the effectiveness of variety adaptation, which could more than half in SSP5-8.5. ... mehr


Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000133598
Veröffentlicht am 03.06.2021
Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15649
Scopus
Zitationen: 15
Web of Science
Zitationen: 12
Dimensions
Zitationen: 16
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2021
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1354-1013, 1365-2486
KITopen-ID: 1000133598
HGF-Programm 12.11.21 (POF IV, LK 01) Human impact on land - climate dynamics
Erschienen in Global Change Biology
Verlag John Wiley and Sons
Band 27
Heft 16
Seiten 3870-3882
Nachgewiesen in Dimensions
Scopus
Web of Science
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