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Waves to Weather: Exploring the limits of predictability of weather

Craig, George C.; Fink, Andreas H.; Hoose, Corinna ORCID iD icon; Janjić, Tijana; Knippertz, Peter ORCID iD icon; Laurian, Audine; Lerch, Sebastian; Mayer, Bernhard; Miltenberger, Annette; Redl, Robert; Riemer, Michael; Tempest, Kirsten I.; Wirth, Volkmar


Prediction of weather is a main goal of atmospheric science. Its importance to society is growing continuously due to factors such as vulnerability to natural disasters, the move to renewable energy sources, and the risks of climate change. But prediction is also a major scientific challenge due to the inherently limited predictability of a chaotic atmosphere, and has led to a revolution in forecasting methods as we have moved to probabilistic prediction. These changes provide the motivation for Waves to Weather (W2W), a major national research program in Germany with three main university partners in Munich, Mainz, and Karlsruhe. We are currently in the second 4-yr phase of our planned duration of 12 years and employ 36 doctoral and postdoctoral scientists. In the context of this large program, we address what we have identified to be the most important and challenging scientific questions in predictability of weather, namely, upscale error growth, errors associated with cloud processes, and probabilistic prediction of high-impact weather. This paper presents some key results of the first phase of W2W and discusses how they have influenced our understanding of predictability. ... mehr

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000134513
Veröffentlicht am 02.05.2022
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0035.1
Zitationen: 1
Zitationen: 1
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsdatum 01.11.2021
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0003-0007, 1520-0477
KITopen-ID: 1000134513
HGF-Programm 12.11.34 (POF IV, LK 01) Improved predictions from weather to climate scales
Erschienen in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Verlag American Meteorological Society
Band 102
Heft 22
Seiten E2151 - E2164
Nachgewiesen in Dimensions
Web of Science
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