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Large variability in response to projected climate and land‐use changes among European bumblebee species

Prestele, Reinhard 1,2; Brown, Calum 1,2; Polce, Chiara; Maes, Joachim; Whitehorn, Penelope 1,2
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
2 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung (IMK), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)

Bumblebees (Bombus ssp.) are among the most important wild pollinators, but many species have suffered from range declines. Land-use change, agricultural intensification, and the associated loss of habitat have been identified as drivers of the observed dynamics, amplifying pressures from a changing climate. However, these drivers are still underrepresented in continental-scale species distribution modeling. Here, we project the potential distribution of 47 European bumblebee species in 2050 and 2080 from existing European-scale distribution maps, based on a set of climate and land-use futures simulated through a regional integrated assessment model and consistent with the RCP–SSP scenario framework. We compare projections including (1) dynamic climate and constant land use (CLIM); (2) constant climate and dynamic land use (LU); and (3) dynamic climate and dynamic land use (COMB) to disentangle the effects of land use and climate change on future habitat suitability, providing the first rigorous continental-scale assessment of linked climate–land-use futures for bumblebees. We find that direct climate impacts, although variable across species, dominate responses for most species, especially under high-end climate change scenarios (up to 99% range loss). ... mehr

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000134960
Veröffentlicht am 20.07.2021
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15780
Zitationen: 3
Web of Science
Zitationen: 4
Zitationen: 7
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsmonat/-jahr 10.2021
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1354-1013, 1365-2486
KITopen-ID: 1000134960
HGF-Programm 12.11.21 (POF IV, LK 01) Human impact on land - climate dynamics
Erschienen in Global change biology
Verlag John Wiley and Sons
Band 27
Heft 19
Seiten 4530-4545
Projektinformation BW-STFG, 43138 (intern)
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 01.07.2021
Nachgewiesen in Dimensions
Web of Science
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