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Tropical cloud-radiative changes contribute to robust climate change-induced jet exit strengthening over Europe during boreal winter

Albern, Nicole 1,2; Voigt, Aiko; Pinto, Joaquim G. 1,2
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
2 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung (IMK), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)

Abstract:

The North Atlantic jet stream is projected to extend eastward towards Europe in boreal winter in response to climate change. We show that this response is robust across a hierarchy of climate models and climate change scenarios. We further show that cloud-radiative changes contribute robustly to the eastward extension of the jet stream in three atmosphere models, but lead to model uncertainties in the jet stream response over the North Atlantic. The magnitude of the cloud contribution depends on the model, consistent with differences in the magnitude of changes in upper-tropospheric cloud-radiative heating. We further study the role of regional cloud changes in one of the three atmosphere models, i.e. the ICON model. Tropical cloud-radiative changes dominate the cloud impact on the eastward extension of the jet stream in ICON. Cloud-radiative changes over the Indian Ocean, western tropical Pacific, and eastern tropical Pacific contribute to this response, while tropical Atlantic cloud changes have a minor impact. Our results highlight the importance of upper-tropospheric tropical clouds for the regional circulation response to climate change over the North Atlantic-European region and uncertainty therein.


Postprint §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000135489
Veröffentlicht am 19.07.2021
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2021
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1748-9326
KITopen-ID: 1000135489
HGF-Programm 12.11.32 (POF IV, LK 01) Advancing atmospheric and Earth system models
Erschienen in Environmental research letters
Verlag Institute of Physics Publishing Ltd (IOP Publishing Ltd)
Band 16
Heft 8
Seiten Art. Nr.: 084041
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 13.07.2021
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