Evaluation of power flow prognosis methods for congestion management in low voltage grids

For the application of proactive congestion management concepts the enhancement and implementation of power flow forecast methods is essential. The increase of directly marketed renewable generation and the use of flexibility options by market participants may lead to difficulties in predicting the power flow without any knowledge of market actions. Therefore, power flow forecast methods that take data and information from market parties and local building energy management systems into account have to be developed and evaluated. This Paper presents an integrated process for creating power flow forecasts in low voltage grids based on the forecasts of different role-specific system solutions such as building energy management systems and flexibility management systems. Moreover, the use of standard load profiles and Smart Meter measurements for the creation of load profiles is presented. The results of the evaluation of the process and the methods for one low voltage grid in the gridlab Freiamt of Netze BW show the potential of the proposed process and the developed methods for a further congestion management in low voltage grids. Furthermore, possible measures to improve the methods are mentioned.