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Identifying uncertainties in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems in support of decision-making

Rounsevell, Mark D. A. ORCID iD icon; Arneth, Almut; Brown, Calum ORCID iD icon; Cheung, William W. L.; Gimenez, Olivier; Holman, Ian; Leadley, Paul; Luján, Criscely; Mahevas, Stéphanie; Maréchaux, Isabelle; Pélissier, Raphaël; Verburg, Peter H.; Vieilledent, Ghislain; Wintle, Brendan A.; Shin, Yunne-Jai

Abstract (englisch):

There are many sources of uncertainty in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems, and understanding these uncertainties is critical in supporting informed decision-making about the management of natural resources. Here, we review uncertainty across the steps needed to create socio-ecological scenarios, from narrative storylines to the representation of human and biological processes in models and the estimation of scenario and model parameters. We find that socio-ecological scenarios and models would benefit from moving away from “stylized” approaches that do not consider a wide range of direct drivers and their dependency on indirect drivers. Indeed, a greater focus on the social phenomena is fundamental in understanding the functioning of nature on a human-dominated planet. There is no panacea for dealing with uncertainty, but several approaches to evaluating uncertainty are still not routinely applied in scenario modeling, and this is becoming increasingly unacceptable. However, it is important to avoid uncertainties becoming an excuse for inaction in decision-making when facing environmental challenges.

DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.06.003
Zitationen: 30
Web of Science
Zitationen: 28
Zitationen: 36
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung (IMK)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsmonat/-jahr 07.2021
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2590-3322
KITopen-ID: 1000135862
HGF-Programm 12.11.21 (POF IV, LK 01) Natural ecosystems as sources and sinks of GHGs
Erschienen in One Earth
Verlag Elsevier
Band 4
Heft 7
Seiten 967–985
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
Web of Science
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