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Global exposure of population and land‐use to meteorological droughts under different warming levels and SSPs: a CORDEX‐based study

Spinoni, Jonathan; Barbosa, Paulo; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Cassano, John; Cavazos, Tereza; Cescatti, Alessandro; Christensen, Jens H.; Christensen, Ole B.; Coppola, Erika; Evans, Jason P.; Forzieri, Giovanni; Geyer, Beate; Giorgi, Filippo; Jacob, Daniela; Katzfey, Jack; Koenigk, Torben; Laprise, René; Lennard, Christopher J.; Kurnaz, M. Levent; ... mehr


Global warming is likely to cause a progressive drought increase in some regions, but how population and natural resources will be affected is still underexplored. This study focuses on global population, forests, croplands and pastures exposure to meteorological drought hazard in the 21st century, expressed as frequency and severity of drought events. As input, we use a large ensemble of climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), population projections from the NASA-SEDAC dataset and land-use projections from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 project for 1981–2100. The exposure to drought hazard is presented for five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-SSP5) at four Global Warming Levels (GWLs: 1.5°C to 4°C). Results show that considering only Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI; based on precipitation), the SSP3 at GWL4 projects the largest fraction of the global population (14%) to experience an increase in drought frequency and severity (versus 1981–2010), with this value increasing to 60% if temperature is considered (indirectly included in the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI). ... mehr

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000135899
Veröffentlicht am 30.06.2022
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7302
Zitationen: 12
Web of Science
Zitationen: 12
Zitationen: 16
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung (IMK)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsmonat/-jahr 12.2021
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0899-8418, 1097-0088
KITopen-ID: 1000135899
HGF-Programm 12.11.33 (POF IV, LK 01) Regional Climate and Hydrological Cycle
Erschienen in International journal of climatology
Verlag John Wiley and Sons
Band 41
Heft 15
Seiten 6825-6853
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 19.07.2021
Schlagwörter climate projections, CORDEX, drought, global warming levels, land-use, population,socioeconomic scenarios
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
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