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Slowdown of the greening trend in natural vegetation with further rise in atmospheric CO$_{2}$

Winkler, A. J.; Myneni, R. B.; Hannart, A.; Sitch, S.; Haverd, V.; Lombardozzi, D.; Arora, V. K.; Pongratz, J.; Nabel, J. E. M. S.; Goll, D. S.; Kato, E.; Tian, H.; Arneth, A. 1; Friedlingstein, P.; Jain, A. K.; Zaehle, S.; Brovkin, V.
1 Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)


Satellite data reveal widespread changes in Earth's vegetation cover. Regions intensively attended to by humans are mostly greening due to land management. Natural vegetation, on the other hand, is exhibiting patterns of both greening and browning in all continents. Factors linked to anthropogenic carbon emissions, such as CO$_{2}$ fertilization, climate change, and consequent disturbances such as fires and droughts, are hypothesized to be key drivers of changes in natural vegetation. A rigorous regional attribution at the biome level that can be scaled to a global picture of what is behind the observed changes is currently lacking. Here we analyze different datasets of decades-long satellite observations of global leaf area index (LAI, 1981–2017) as well as other proxies for vegetation changes and identify several clusters of significant long-term changes. Using process-based model simulations (Earth system and land surface models), we disentangle the effects of anthropogenic carbon emissions on LAI in a probabilistic setting applying causal counterfactual theory. The analysis prominently indicates the effects of climate change on many biomes – warming in northern ecosystems (greening) and rainfall anomalies in tropical biomes (browning). ... mehr

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000138032
Veröffentlicht am 01.10.2021
DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021
Zitationen: 26
Web of Science
Zitationen: 26
Zitationen: 32
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2021
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1726-4170, 1726-4189
KITopen-ID: 1000138032
HGF-Programm 12.11.21 (POF IV, LK 01) Natural ecosystems as sources and sinks of GHGs
Erschienen in Biogeosciences
Verlag Copernicus Publications
Band 18
Heft 17
Seiten 4985-5010
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 13.09.2021
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
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