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Addressing the gaps in market diffusion modeling of electrical vehicles: A case study from Germany for the integration of environmental policy measures

Van, Tien Linh Cao; Barthelmes, Lukas; Gnann, Till; Speth, Daniel; Kagerbauer, Martin


Electric vehicles (EVs) can help to reduce greenhouse gas emissions of the transportation sector. Therefore, the German government has defined various measures and targets to promote the diffusion of EVs. However, factors influ-encing the market diffusion of EVs as well as interdependencies between policy measures and vehicle diffusion are often unclear and hence, diffusion simula-tions are probably inaccurate. At the same time, a precise simulation of EV dif-fusion is a relevant parameter in travel demand models building the base for transportation planning. This paper addresses the gaps in current market diffu-sion models for EVs with a particular focus on environmental effects as addi-tional influencing factors of the market diffusion. Results will be drawn for the German car market with a market diffusion simulation until 2050. The market diffusion model ALADIN is applied and energy prices are extended by a CO2 price to improve the consideration of environmental factors in the market diffu-sion modelling. The effectiveness of environmental policy measures is as-sessed in scenarios with three different CO2 prices and their impact on the dif-fusion of EVs. ... mehr

Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Verkehrswesen (IFV)
Publikationstyp Forschungsbericht/Preprint
Publikationsjahr 2021
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator KITopen-ID: 1000138761
Verlag Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung (ISI)
Umfang 27 S.
Serie Working Paper Sustainability and Innovation ; S05/2021
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