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Simulation-based multi-criteria decision making: an interactive method with a case study on infectious disease epidemics

Dunke, Fabian; Nickel, Stefan

Abstract:
Whenever a system needs to be operated by a central decision making authority in the presence of two or more conflicting goals, methods from multi-criteria decision making can help to resolve the trade-offs between these goals. In this work, we devise an interactive simulation-based methodology for planning and deciding in complex dynamic systems subject to multiple objectives and parameter uncertainty. The outline intermittently employs simulation models and global sensitivity analysis methods in order to facilitate the acquisition of system-related knowledge throughout the iterations. Moreover, the decision maker participates in the decision making process by interactively adjusting control variables and system parameters according to a guiding analysis question posed for each iteration. As a result, the overall decision making process is backed up by sensitivity analysis results providing increased confidence in terms of reliability of considered decision alternatives. Using the efficiency concept of Pareto optimality and the sensitivity analysis method of Sobol’ sensitivity indices, the methodology is then instantiated in a case study on planning and deciding in an infectious disease epidemic situation similar to the 2020 coronavirus pandemic. ... mehr


Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000139382
Veröffentlicht am 29.10.2021
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Operations Research (IOR)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2021
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0254-5330, 1572-9338
KITopen-ID: 1000139382
Erschienen in Annals of Operations Research
Verlag Springer
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
Scopus
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