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Future projections of Mediterranean cyclone characteristics using the Med-CORDEX ensemble of coupled regional climate system models

Reale, Marco; Cabos Narvaez, William David; Cavicchia, Leone; Conte, Dario; Coppola, Erika; Flaounas, Emmanouil; Giorgi, Filippo; Gualdi, Silvio; Hochman, Assaf; Li, Laurent; Lionello, Piero; Podrascanin, Zorica; Salon, Stefano; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Sein, Dmitry V.; Somot, Samuel

Abstract:
Here, we analyze future projections of cyclone activity in the Mediterranean region at the end of the twenty-first century based on an ensemble of state-of-the-art fully-coupled Regional Climate System Models (RCSMs) from the Med-CORDEX initiative under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Despite some noticeable biases, all the RCSMs capture spatial patterns and cyclone activity key characteristics in the region and thus all of them can be considered as plausible representations of the future evolution of Mediterranean cyclones. In general, the RCSMs show at the end of the twenty-first century a decrease in the number and an overall weakening of cyclones moving across the Mediterranean. Five out of seven RCSMs simulate also a decrease of the mean size of the systems. Moreover, in agreement with what already observed in CMIP5 projections for the area, the models suggest an increase in the Central part of the Mediterranean region and a decrease in the South-eastern part of the region in the cyclone-related wind speed and precipitation rate. These rather two opposite tendencies observed in the precipitation should compensate and amplify, respectively, the effect of the overall reduction of the frequency of cyclones on the water budget over the Central and South-eastern part of the region. ... mehr


Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000139622
Veröffentlicht am 04.11.2021
Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-06018-x
Scopus
Zitationen: 2
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2021
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0930-7575, 1432-0894
KITopen-ID: 1000139622
HGF-Programm 12.11.32 (POF IV, LK 01) Advancing atmospheric and Earth system models
Erschienen in Climate dynamics
Verlag Springer
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 03.11.2021
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
Scopus
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