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Analysis of the 2021 Bundestag elections. 1/4. Representativeness of the parties and the Bundestag

Tangian, Andranik S.

Abstract:

This is the first out of four papers devoted to the 2021 German federal elections continuing our analysis of the 2009, 2013 and 2017 Bundestag elections by the methods of the mathematical theory of democracy. This one estimates the policy representation ability of the 39 parties that participated in the 2021 elections and the Bundestag. For this purpose, the positions of the parties on 38 topical issues are compared with the results of recent public opinion polls. Then the parties’ indices of popularity (the average percentage of the population represented) and universality (frequency in representing a majority) are constructed. Assuming that the Bundestag’s position on the 38 issues is determined by the Bundestag majority, the Bundestag’s indices of popularity and universality are estimated as well. The main conclusion is that the representativeness of the Bundestag parties and the Bundestag (before coalition-formation) has sig-nificantly increased since 2017. In particular, the election winner, the SPD, is now ranked 4 instead of 22 in 2017, having the mean index (popularity + universality) / 2 = 65% instead of 52 % in 2017. The Bundestag’s mean index is now equal to 61% instead of former 40%. ... mehr


Volltext §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000143156
Veröffentlicht am 18.02.2022
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (ECON)
Publikationstyp Forschungsbericht/Preprint
Publikationsmonat/-jahr 01.2022
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2190-9806
KITopen-ID: 1000143156
Verlag Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
Umfang ii, 31 S.
Serie Working paper series in economics ; 151
Schlagwörter Policy representation, representative democracy, direct democracy, elections, coalitions
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