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Recurrence of Drought Events Over Iberia. Part II: Future Changes Using Regional Climate Projections

Moemken, Julia ORCID iD icon; Koerner, Benjamin; Ehmele, Florian 1; Feldmann, Hendrik 1; Pinto, Joaquim G. 1
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)


Seasonal droughts are a common feature of the Iberian (Mediterranean) climate. They can have severe impacts on both natural and human life – especially, when recurring in consecutive years. In this study, we investigate the potential impacts of climate change on recurrent drought events in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). With this aim, we use the new set of indices introduced in Moemken and Pinto (2022): the Recurrent Dry Year Index (RDYI) and the Consecutive Drought Year (CDY) Index. These are applied to a large EURO-CORDEX multi-model ensemble consisting of 25 different global-to-regional model (GCM-RCM) chains that follow the RCP8.5 scenario with 12 km horizontal resolution. A drizzle correction and a simple multiplicative approach are used to bias-adjust the daily precipitation sums.

Results reveal a general tendency towards more severe drought conditions in IP under different global warming levels (GWLs). Moreover, recurrent drought events are projected to occur more frequent and last longer. While the ensemble mean responses are only moderate for a GWL of +2°C (compared to the pre-industrial average), recurrent drought conditions are strongly enhanced for the +3°C GWL. ... mehr

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000145351
Veröffentlicht am 26.04.2022
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2022
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1600-0870
KITopen-ID: 1000145351
HGF-Programm 12.11.33 (POF IV, LK 01) Regional Climate and Hydrological Cycle
Erschienen in Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography
Verlag Taylor & Francis Open Access
Band 74
Seiten 262-279
Bemerkung zur Veröffentlichung Gefördert durch den KIT-Publikationsfonds
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 25.04.2022
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