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How Climate Extremes Influence Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model Performance and Uncertainty

Watson, Andrew ; Midgley, Guy; Ray, Patrick; Kralisch, Sven; Helmschrot, Jörg 1
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung Troposphärenforschung (IMKTRO), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)

Abstract:

Rainfall-runoff models are frequently used for assessing climate risks by predicting changes in streamflow and other hydrological processes due to anticipated anthropogenic climate change, climate variability, and land management. Historical observations are commonly used to calibrate empirically the performance of conceptual hydrological mechanisms. As a result, calibration procedures are limited when extrapolated to novel climate conditions under future scenarios. In this paper, rainfall-runoff model performance and the simulated catchment hydrological processes were explored using the JAMS/J2000 model for the Berg River catchment in South Africa to evaluate the model in the tails of the current distribution of climatic conditions. An evolutionary multi-objective search algorithm was used to develop sets of parameters which best simulate “wet” and “dry” periods, providing the upper and lower bounds for a temporal uncertainty analysis approach to identify variables which are affected by these climate extremes. Variables most affected included soil-water storage and timing of interflow and groundwater flow, emerging as the overall dampening of the simulated hydrograph. ... mehr


Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000149060
Veröffentlicht am 27.07.2022
Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2022.859303
Scopus
Zitationen: 4
Dimensions
Zitationen: 3
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung Troposphärenforschung (IMKTRO)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2022
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2624-9553
KITopen-ID: 1000149060
HGF-Programm 12.11.34 (POF IV, LK 01) Improved predictions from weather to climate scales
Erschienen in Frontiers in Climate
Verlag Frontiers Media SA
Band 4
Seiten Art.-Nr.: 859303
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 22.06.2022
Nachgewiesen in Dimensions
Scopus
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