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Agent‐Based Modeling of Alternative Futures in the British Land Use System

Brown, C. ORCID iD icon 1; Seo, B. 1; Alexander, P.; Burton, V.; Chacón-Montalván, E. A.; Dunford, R.; Merkle, M.; Harrison, P. A.; Prestele, R. ORCID iD icon 1; Robinson, E. L.; Rounsevell, M. ORCID iD icon 1
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)


Socio-economic scenarios such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been widely used to analyze global change impacts, but representing their diversity is a challenge for the analytical tools applied to them. Taking Great Britain as an example, we represent a set of stakeholder-elaborated UK-SSP scenarios, linked to climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways), in a globally-embedded agent-based modeling framework. We find that distinct model components are required to account for divergent behavioral, social and societal conditions in the SSPs, and that these have dramatic impacts on land system outcomes. From strong social networks and environmental sustainability in SSP1 to land consolidation and technological intensification in SSP5, scenario-specific model designs vary widely from one another and from present-day conditions. Changes in social and human capitals reflecting social cohesion, equality, health and education can generate impacts larger than those of technological and economic change, and comparable to those of modeled climate change. We develop an open-access, transferrable model framework and provide UK-SSP projections to 2080 at 1 km$^2$ resolution, revealing large differences in land management intensities, provision of a range of ecosystem services, and the knowledge and motivations underlying land manager decision-making. ... mehr

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000152226
Veröffentlicht am 03.11.2022
DOI: 10.1029/2022EF002905
Zitationen: 6
Zitationen: 7
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Institut für Geographie und Geoökologie (IFGG)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsmonat/-jahr 11.2022
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2328-4277
KITopen-ID: 1000152226
HGF-Programm 12.11.21 (POF IV, LK 01) Natural ecosystems as sources and sinks of GHGs
Erschienen in Earth's Future
Verlag Wiley Open Access
Band 10
Heft 11
Seiten Art.: e2022EF002905
Bemerkung zur Veröffentlichung Gefördert durch den KIT-Publikationsfonds
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 02.11.2022
Schlagwörter land use change, land use model, scenario analysis, socio-economic scenario, model evaluation, TRACE
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
Web of Science
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