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Everything Hits at Once: How Remote Rainfall Matters for the Prediction of the 2021 North American Heat Wave

Oertel, A. ORCID iD icon 1; Pickl, M. ORCID iD icon 1; Quinting, J. F. ORCID iD icon 1; Hauser, S. ORCID iD icon 1; Wandel, J. 2; Magnusson, L.; Balmaseda, M.; Vitart, F.; Grams, C. M. 1
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung Troposphärenforschung (IMKTRO), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
2 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung (IMK), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)


In June 2021, Western North America experienced an intense heat wave with unprecedented temperatures and far-reaching socio-economic consequences. Anomalous rainfall in the West Pacific triggers a cascade of weather events across the Pacific, which build up a high-amplitude ridge over Canada and ultimately lead to the heat wave. We show that the response of the jet stream to diabatically enhanced ascending motion in extratropical cyclones represents a predictability barrier with regard to the heat wave magnitude. Therefore, probabilistic weather forecasts are only able to predict the extremity of the heat wave once the complex cascade of weather events is captured. Our results highlight the key role of the sequence of individual weather events in limiting the predictability of this extreme event. We therefore conclude that it is not sufficient to consider such rare events in isolation but it is essential to account for the whole cascade over different spatiotemporal scales.

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000156336
Veröffentlicht am 02.03.2023
DOI: 10.1029/2022GL100958
Zitationen: 12
Zitationen: 18
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung Troposphärenforschung (IMKTRO)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsdatum 16.02.2023
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0094-8276, 1944-8007
KITopen-ID: 1000156336
HGF-Programm 12.11.34 (POF IV, LK 01) Improved predictions from weather to climate scales
Erschienen in Geophysical Research Letters
Verlag John Wiley and Sons
Band 50
Heft 3
Seiten Art.Nr:e2022GL100958
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 07.02.2023
Schlagwörter heat wave, predictability, predictability barrier, warm conveyor belt, diabatic heating
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
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