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Climate change impacts on the availability of anti-malarial plants in Kenya

Gafna, Dikko Jeff 1; Obando, Joy A.; Kalwij, Jesse M.; Dolos, Klara 1; Schmidtlein, Sebastian ORCID iD icon 1
1 Institut für Geographie und Geoökologie (IFGG), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)

Abstract:

In many rural East African areas, anti-malarial plants are commonly used as first-line treatment against malaria. However, spatially explicit information about the future availability of anti-malarial plant species and its relation to future suitable habitat for malaria vectors is limited. In this study we (1) model the distribution of anti-malarial plant and malaria vector species and assess the drivers of their distributions taking the example of the Samburu dryland in Kenya, (2) map the modeled overlap in this area, (3) assess the impact of future climate change on anti-malarial plant and malaria vector species and (4) report their future overlaps. Our results show that mean temperature of warmest quarter, precipitation of wettest quarter and mean temperature of coldest quarter were the most important environmental variables that affected the distribution of anti-malarial species. The effects of climate change will vary, with some areas characterized by huge losses in anti-malarial species habitat while others gained or remained stable under both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios by 2050s and 2070s. According to most of our scenarios, more than half of the anti-malarial species will become vulnerable or threatened by 2050s and 2070s. ... mehr


Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000156923
Veröffentlicht am 16.03.2023
Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2023.100070
Scopus
Zitationen: 3
Dimensions
Zitationen: 4
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Geographie und Geoökologie (IFGG)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsmonat/-jahr 07.2023
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2666-9005
KITopen-ID: 1000156923
Erschienen in Climate Change Ecology
Verlag Elsevier
Band 5
Seiten Art.-Nr.: 100070
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 25.02.2023
Schlagwörter Species distribution modeling (SDM), Medicinal plant, Malaria, Climate change, Samburu, Kenya
Nachgewiesen in Dimensions
Scopus
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