Microscopic Agent-Based Parcel Demand Model for the Simulation of CEP-Based Urban Freight Movements to and from Companies

Recently, a substantial increase in parcel volumes has been observable, primarily shipped by courier, express, and parcel service providers (CEPSPs). Especially in urban areas, existing space conflicts are intensified, while emissions are steadily rising due to the higher need of parcel transportation. From a regional planning perspective, understanding the net effect of increased parcel volumes is essential for transportation planning and policies, for which freight demand models are commonly used. Existing models primarily focus on parcel deliveries to private customers, although parcel shipments to and from companies considerably contribute to the overall parcel volumes. Hence, this study aims to develop an agent-based model that explicitly represents the in- and outgoing parcel volumes of companies in urban areas delivered by CEPSPs. An approach based on Open Data and self-conducted expert interviews with CEPSPs is developed. First, OpenStreetMap data is used to geographically represent companies with the corresponding sector assignment within a study area in Karlsruhe, Germany. Second, a concept for modeling the weekly in- and outgoing parcel volume for each company in the study area is developed using literature-based data. ... mehrThe approach is integrated into the existing agent-based framework logiTopp considering all relevant CEPSPs of the respective area. The application shows that modeling CEP-based transportation volumes of companies based on Open Data is possible though restrictions apply to the granularity of the used data. However, potential is seen in generating a well-funded empirical database of companies’ in- and outgoing parcel demand structures to improve the model further.