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Sensitivity of Arctic CH$_4$ emissions to landscape wetness diminished by atmospheric feedbacks

de Vrese, Philipp; Beckebanze, Lutz ORCID iD icon 1; Galera, Leonardo de Aro; Holl, David; Kleinen, Thomas; Kutzbach, Lars; Rehder, Zoé; Brovkin, Victor
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung Troposphärenforschung (IMKTRO), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)


Simulations using land surface models suggest future increases in Arctic methane emissions to be limited by the thaw-induced drying of permafrost landscapes. Here we use the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model to show that this constraint may be weaker than previously thought owing to compensatory atmospheric feedbacks. In two sets of extreme scenario simulations, a modification of the permafrost hydrology resulted in diverging hydroclimatic trajectories that, however, led to comparable methane fluxes. While a wet Arctic showed almost twice the wetland area compared with an increasingly dry Arctic, the latter featured greater substrate availability due to higher temperatures resulting from reduced evaporation, diminished cloudiness and more surface solar radiation. Given the limitations of present-day models and the potential model dependence of the atmospheric response, our results provide merely a qualitative estimation of these effects, but they suggest that atmospheric feedbacks play an important role in shaping future Arctic methane emissions.

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000160965
Veröffentlicht am 26.07.2023
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung Troposphärenforschung (IMKTRO)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2023
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1758-678X, 1758-6798
KITopen-ID: 1000160965
Erschienen in Nature Climate Change
Verlag Nature Research
Band 13
Seiten 832-839
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 06.07.2023
Schlagwörter Climate and Earth system modelling, Cryospheric science
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
Web of Science
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