KIT | KIT-Bibliothek | Impressum | Datenschutz

Prediction of defensive success in elite soccer using machine learning - Tactical analysis of defensive play using tracking data and explainable AI

Forcher, Leander ORCID iD icon 1; Beckmann, Tobias; Wohak, Oliver; Romeike, Christian; Graf, Ferdinand; Altmann, Stefan 1
1 Institut für Sport und Sportwissenschaft (IfSS), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)

Abstract:

The interest in sports performance analysis is rising and tracking data holds high potential for game analysis in team sports due to its accuracy and informative content. Together with machine learning approaches one can obtain deeper and more objective insights into the performance structure. In soccer, the analysis of the defense was neglected in comparison to the offense. Therefore, the aim of this study is to predict ball gains in defense using tracking data to identify tactical variables that drive defensive success.
We evaluated tracking data of 153 games of German Bundesliga season 2020/21. With it, we derived player (defensive pressure, distance to the ball, & velocity) and team metrics (inter-line distances, numerical superiority, surface area, & spread) each containing a tactical idea. Afterwards, we trained supervised machine learning classifiers (logistic regression, XGBoost, & Random Forest Classifier) to predict successful (ball gain) vs. unsuccessful defensive plays (no ball gain).
The expert-reduction-model (Random Forest Classifier with 16 features) showed the best and satisfying prediction performance (F1-Score (test) = 0.57).
... mehr


Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.1080/24733938.2023.2239766
Scopus
Zitationen: 6
Web of Science
Zitationen: 5
Dimensions
Zitationen: 8
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Sport und Sportwissenschaft (IfSS)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2023
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2473-3938, 2473-4446
KITopen-ID: 1000161504
Erschienen in Science and Medicine in Football
Verlag Taylor and Francis
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 04.08.2023
Schlagwörter Football, defense, team sports, key performance indicators (KPI), tactics, performance analysis
Nachgewiesen in Dimensions
Web of Science
Scopus
KIT – Die Forschungsuniversität in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
KITopen Landing Page