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Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection-permitting climate ensemble over Germany

Hundhausen, Marie 1; Feldmann, Hendrik 1; Laube, Natalie 1; Pinto, Joaquim G. 1
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung Troposphärenforschung (IMKTRO), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)

Abstract:

Heat extremes and associated impacts are considered the most pressing issue for German regional governments with respect to climate adaptation. We explore the potential of a unique high-resolution, convection-permitting (2.8 m), multi-GCM (global climate model) ensemble with COSMO-CLM (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling Climate Limited-area Modelling) regional simulations (1971–2100) over Germany regarding heat extremes and related impacts. We find a systematically reduced cold bias especially in summer in the convection-permitting simulations compared to the driving simulations with a grid size of 7 km and parametrized convection. The projected increase in temperature and its variance favors the development of longer and hotter heat waves, especially in late summer and early autumn. In a 2 ∘C (3 ∘C) warmer world, a 26 % (100 %) increase in the heat wave magnitude index is anticipated. Human heat stress (universal thermal climate index (UTCI) > 32 ∘C) and region-specific parameters tailored to climate adaptation revealed a dependency on the major landscapes, resulting in significantly higher heat exposure in flat regions such as the Rhine Valley, accompanied by the strongest absolute increase. ... mehr

Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung Troposphärenforschung (IMKTRO)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2023
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1684-9981
KITopen-ID: 1000162173
HGF-Programm 12.11.33 (POF IV, LK 01) Regional Climate and Hydrological Cycle
Erschienen in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Verlag European Geosciences Union (EGU)
Band 23
Heft 8
Seiten 2873–2893
Bemerkung zur Veröffentlichung Gefördert durch den KIT-Publikationsfonds
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 30.08.2023
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
Scopus
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Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000162173
Veröffentlicht am 14.09.2023
Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023
Scopus
Zitationen: 5
Web of Science
Zitationen: 1
Dimensions
Zitationen: 6
Seitenaufrufe: 125
seit 14.09.2023
Downloads: 61
seit 19.09.2023
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