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Benefits and trade-offs of optimizing global land use for food, water, and carbon

Bayer, Anita D. 1; Lautenbach, Sven; Arneth, Almut 2
1 Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
2 Institut für Geographie und Geoökologie (IFGG), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)

Abstract:

Current large-scale patterns of land use reflect history, local traditions, and productioncosts, much more so than they reflect biophysical potential or global supply anddemand for food and freshwater, or—more recently—climate change mitigation. Wequantified alternative land-use allocations that consider trade-offs for these demandsby combining a dynamic vegetation model and an optimization algorithm to determinePareto-optimal land-use allocations under changing climate conditions in 2090–2099and alternatively in 2033–2042. These form the outer bounds of the option spacefor global land-use transformation. Results show a potential to increase all threeindicators (+83% in crop production,+8% in available runoff, and+3% in carbonstorage globally) compared to the current land-use configuration, with clear land-use priority areas: Tropical and boreal forests were preserved, crops were produced intemperate regions, and pastures were preferentially allocated in semiarid grasslands andsavannas. Transformations toward optimal land-use patterns would imply extensivereconfigurations and changes in land management, but the required annual land-usechanges were nevertheless of similar magnitude as those suggested by established land-use change scenarios. ... mehr


Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000163909
Veröffentlicht am 07.11.2023
Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2220371120
Scopus
Zitationen: 7
Web of Science
Zitationen: 5
Dimensions
Zitationen: 8
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Institut für Geographie und Geoökologie (IFGG)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsdatum 17.10.2023
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0027-8424, 1091-6490
KITopen-ID: 1000163909
HGF-Programm 12.11.21 (POF IV, LK 01) Natural ecosystems as sources and sinks of GHGs
Erschienen in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Verlag National Academy of Sciences
Band 120
Heft 42
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 09.10.2023
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
Dimensions
Web of Science
Globale Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung Ziel 2 – Kein HungerZiel 13 – Maßnahmen zum Klimaschutz
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